Later City News: French museums are among the most important in the world. Their modus operandi is quite similar to that of museums around the world (Europe – including Scandinavian countries; Asia – including Japan, Korea and China; Africa, the Middle East, and South America), with the exception of Anglo-Saxon countries Tobelem, 2017a).
However, visitors are disproportionately attracted to the largest museums and those museums seem to be reaching their limits in terms of development. How will they evolve by 2030?
A paper published by Elsevier publisher through the journal of "Technological Forecasting and Social Change" explains that the experts agreed that visitors from Asia (Japan, China, India, and Korea…) are likely to rise, while they disagree with an increasing number of visitors from Africa and remain almost neutral for the other incoming destinations. In contrast, laws and regulations should not play a key role in the next decade, according to them.
The authors of this paper BertrandPauget, Jean-Michel Tobelem and Jean-Philippe Bootz confirmed that the experts agreed on the collaboration with various institutions but had mixed emotions and were reluctant to include all the key variables regarding the participation of the audience for temporary or permanent exhibitions for instance. Funding is likely to decrease say the experts and the demand for more transparency, efficient management, and cost control. However, the experts think that the recruitment of new professionals, especially to strengthen the relationship with their online audiences, is likely to happen. We should note the minor role of technology (only one variable was selected for round 2) is validated only for the online publication of collections after digitization.
In this research, the first issue was to understand the role of museums in 2030. While a legal definition existed, it was not clear that this definition was shared by all the museums. It was not obvious indeed that despite their statutes if the Louvre Museum (9.6 million visitors per year in 2019) and a museum attracting 50,000 people had something in common.
Indeed, the Louvre is an international museum brand while small museums such as the musée Dauphinois have a local influence (84,000 visitors/year, coming mainly from the district). Indeed, this research shows that they have a common view of what is a museum.
Museums can be framed in terms of six missions (Knel et al., 2014). They are responsible for the preservation and transmission of cultural heritage, as well as education about cultural heritage. In addition, a museum is a place of exchange and where people come for esthetic, educational, or knowledge reasons. A clarification of the most important missions by 2030 was therefore necessary.
The most important missions for the experts are the educational issues and the democratization of the culture.
The main classes of validated trends tend to revolve around technology, governance management and collaboration with various institutions, internal management of museums, and their financing.
The paper constructed two trend scenarios and a breakthrough scenario. The two trend scenarios are based on the most consensual variables in terms of Mean, Standard Deviation, and percentage of agreement among experts.
The first scenario proposes the deepening of the educational and social mission. It includes a closer collaboration with other institutions such as schools and universities. The second scenario is a little less supported by the experts. It is based on the idea that financial constraints will increase and that museums will have to adapt. Development of their resources, through specific activities, could occur.
The first scenario is a vision of the democratization of culture and a greater diversity of the audience. In this context, museums are autonomous cooperative institutions oriented around their socio-educational role. Accordingly, the museum will evolve towards a greater awareness of its social dimension by participating in social inclusion actions, improving its relationships with non-familiar audiences, and developing links with the socio-health sector.
Museums will have to cooperate with each other and with other cultural institutions. In this way, we obtain a holistic vision of the museum, confident in its strengths and seeking to mesh with other public institutions within a well-defined governance framework. It is the idea of “growing the public sector”.
Moving beyond stakeholders in the broad sense, selected cooperative pursuits are preferred. This does not involve mergers between institutions but rather specific cooperation with other institutions (public and preferably cultural).
In this context, the public (i.e., visitors) is not directly involved in strategic decision-making processes but can contribute to the choice of certain programs. In this scenario, the technological aspect appears to be subordinate but nevertheless has an important role in terms of ensuring better mediation with the public. The virtual museum is only one of the numerous possibilities to improve the accessibility of works to a young audience.
To deal with budgetary issues, a twofold movement is launched. On the one hand, this involves the outsourcing of activities (e.g., maintenance, IT, security, and mediation). On the other hand, the museum is placing greater emphasis on promotion, communication, and marketing actions, with the help of specialists in these activities.
In a context of growing cultural practices, the museum configures its activities depending on the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of its (current and potential) visitor base.
For example, specific activities are planned for tourists, especially from Asia, as part of territorial development. Making the museum and its activities “known” becomes essential in this perspective and continuous investment is made in establishing, maintaining, and stimulating social networks.
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