India is the only exception, as cumulative emissions from the national model are higher than the Indian carbon budget from global cost-optimal 2 °C scenarios, as the imposition of universal carbon tax results in higher relative mitigation effort for energy inefficient countries like India.
Later City News: A paper published in the journal of "Energy" by Elsevier confirms that the “Low-emission” scenarios developed with the national-scale models are compatible with well-below 2 °C goal, as cumulative national CO₂ emissions “carbon budget” over 2010–2050 are well within the range projected by leading global models for cost-optimal scenarios meeting a carbon budget of 1000 Gt CO₂, considered equivalent to below 2 °C.
In some countries such as Canada, and USA, national pathways are even consistent with global models’ scenarios meeting the carbon budget of 400 Gt CO₂ by 2100 (equivalent to likely 1.5 °C) but India is the only exception, as cumulative emissions from the national model are higher than the Indian carbon budget from global cost-optimal 2 °C scenarios, as the imposition of universal carbon tax results in higher relative mitigation effort for energy inefficient countries like India.
This paper studies "Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States" and published professor "Panagiotis Fragkos" and a group of researchers from different countries.
This research concluded that on average, national carbon budgets quantified in this study show a reduction of approximately 37% between the “Reference” and the “Low-emission” scenarios over 2011–2050; this reduction is even higher in Canada and the USA indicating their high mitigation efforts and potentials, but also in India, showing that this country has high abatement potential and the ambition level of Reference policies can be increased.
These low-carbon energy investment requirements appear manageable if the strong decline of fossil fuel-related investments compared to the Reference scenario is considered; in most developed economies such as Canada, EU, Japan, and the USA, energy investments are projected to increase by about 0.5–1.1% of GDP over 2020–2050, while the increase is somewhat higher in India, around 1.5% of GDP.
The “Low-emission” scenario will require about a 20%–35% increase in cumulative investments from Reference levels across countries over 2020–2050. Supply-side investments are not projected to grow significantly in low-emission pathways due to the large-scale investment in energy savings, directed for instance to energy-efficient equipment, electric cars, and thermal insulation in buildings.
Supply-side investments are dominated by low-carbon power generation technologies (mostly directed to solar PV and wind), which are accompanied by higher transmission, distribution (T&D), and storage investments.
In countries such as Australia and Brazil, the additional capital required for the energy system transition is less than 0.3% of GDP, as reduced fossil fuel-oriented investments compensate for the increased capital needs for low-carbon energy.
However, the socio-economic situation in each country especially in the post-COVID era should be carefully considered, as the ability of countries to invest massively in low-carbon technologies depends on their socio-economic development, their fiscal situation, and their ability to borrow at low-interest rates from both domestic and international markets.
In recent times, the Indian economy has enjoyed a positive economic trajectory. However, the economy remains vulnerable to domestic and geographical risk as it relates to environmental degradation. The Indian economy is reputed as one of the leading emitters of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions globally.
The findings of professor Fragkos team indicate a mix (positive and negative) of relationships amongst the explanatory variables and the explained variable (GDP). It is revealed that there are positive and negative relationships between income (GDP) and all the explanatory variables and they are all significant except for the case of trade openness, which is insignificant in the long run.
The findings of this study have helped us come to the terms with the advocates of diversification of the energy intensity of India. This could be achieved by adopting a more aggressive measure into renewable energy sources which will sustain the economic momentum of the country.
The formulation and implementation of good policies to moderate the activities in the Indian energy sector and manufacturing sector will enhance the sustainable development of the country.
If the government places emission limits on the manufacturing companies and industries, this will assist with controlling the CO2 emission rate in the country.
The option of imposing fines or heavy taxation on violators of this policy will discourage the degradation of the environment.
Conservative energy use should be adopted through the introduction of alternative renewable energy sources such as wind, hydropower, and oceanic energy sources.
The implementation of the above-mentioned policies will aid in sustaining the positive economic growth and improved environmental performance of India.
However, a report published by Bloomberg in March 2021 shows that India is expected to boost its commitment to slow global warming ahead of climate talks in Scotland this year.
Officials close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi are working with senior bureaucrats and foreign advisers to consider ways to meet the 2050 deadline, according to people familiar with the matter.
However, top steelmaker China -- the biggest polluter -- has already set a 2060 net-zero target, while Japan aims to reach that goal by 2050. India’s push to cut emissions will depend heavily on the steel sector, which is the biggest carbon dioxide emitter among its industries.
“If we want to expand to meet the growing requirements to build our economy, we have to be efficient until hydrogen-based technology becomes available and in the meantime use renewable energy for reducing fossil fuel-based power,” said Seshagiri Rao, joint managing director at JSW Steel Ltd. The benefits to productivity and the quality of steel will compensate for the extra costs on the greener technology, he said.
U.S. officials arguing against Biden climate plan often point to India’s and China’s pollution; both nations could be in the hot seat at April 22 U.S. summit.
A 2047 target is also being considered, those officials said, according to Bloomberg, a date that marks the centenary of India’s independence from British rule.
Coal-heavy India and China, as well as the U.S., hold the top three spots for the largest global emitters of greenhouse gases.
China, which still draws some 60% of its power from coal, is the top polluter, followed by the U.S., then India.
In India, renewable energy use is on the rise, but coal still provides around 70% of the populous nation’s electricity. Its state-owned Coal India is the largest mining company in the world. U.S. coal generates about 19% of its overall electricity and more coal production is expected to shutter. Historically cheap natural gas NG00, -1.57% is the U.S.’s popular source, but renewables are now competitive.
Meanwhile, China has confirmed last year that it would aim for carbon neutrality by 2060, and a peak in emissions by 2030. A Joe Biden-led U.S. has recently pledged to hit net zero by 2050.
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