Later City News: If the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase rate of palliative will be 42.4% almost 161,842 more people per year, a total of 537,240 by 2040.
In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040 and cancer increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040 will be the main drivers of increased need.
A group of researchers from King's College London in a paper published by BMC Medicine indicated; If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040.
By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659).
If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year).
Healthcare services will therefore need to adapt to provide appropriate services for changing populations, and this will require more resources, including palliative and end-of-life care.
Estimates of the cost of care in the last year of life are consistently high, and in England, these costs are expected to grow by 25% by 2030.
However, despite the growth in drivers of palliative care needs, access to palliative care remains inconsistent, even in high-income countries, with the number of providers varying from 5 to 680 per million population.
Overall, only a minority who need palliative care, perhaps as low as 14%, receive it Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care.
The growing numbers of older people and the increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified.
The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care needs in two high-income countries.
Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines.
Countries with similar demographic and disease changes will likely experience comparable rises in need.
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