Later City News: India is expected to become the 2nd largest in terms of PPP measurement even overtaking the mighty USA, to become an economy of 46.3 trillion which indicates a growth of about 387% by 2030 when taking the year 2017 as the base.
A paper published by Aditi Damodar Shingare, Tanya Kanoi from Narsee Monjee Institute of Management Studies confirms that the current size of India's economy is 2.9 trillion dollars, which is expected to become about $5 trillion by 2025 and $8.4 trillion by 2030. These amounts to an average annual real growth rate of 8% and would make India’s economy the third-largest by 2026, behind China and the U.S.
With the given pace of growth of India, there will be a rapid decrease in poverty from 15% today to about 5% below the poverty line in 2030 although India would still continue to be a rural country and only 0.5% of the population urbanized every year.
This paper which has been published by International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET) reiterated that India will remain a nation powered by a large young workforce over the foreseeable future.
The next decade shall behold an upward surge in GDP growth majority of which shall be contributed through consumption. Household Consumption will grow to $5 trillion, from today’s $1.6 Trillion.
Indian unemployment increased to 6.1% in 2018 from 3.7% in 2012 and is assumed to be at the same level. However, the contribution of the workforce to GDP will increase by 0.3% which will consist of more educated labor to boost productivity.
As India has just begun its demographic transition it can be expected to have a private saving bonanza until the population stabilizes till 2040, when the UN estimates it will be 1.6billion.
Also, private savings could rise to over 30% by 2030 and the gross domestic savings rate could be increasing thus India will not face any savings constraints in the future.
Thus, it seems highly probable that India will grow at about 10% p.a which with the population growing at 1.5-1% p.a would lead to a per capita income growth of about 8.5-9% for the next two decades.
India is set to cross China as the world’s most populated country by 2027, according to the predictions of the United Nations (UN). The population of India is projected close to 1,380 billion and is expected to become the first political entity in history to be the home to more than 1.5 billion people by 2030 and further to 1.66 billion by 2050.
In India, the life expectancy at birth will be 71 years in 2025-2030, growing to 74.2 years in 2045-2050. A relatively young structure also contributes to India’s population growth. The median age in India is 27 years, compared to 38 years to that of China.
India’s rate of urban population growth is expected to rise, partly due to migratory flow, especially youth seeking jobs. International migration does not play a significant role in India’s population growth. Nevertheless, India has the largest immigrant population, with around 16 million Indians living abroad and millions planning to emigrate.
Even in 2030, India will be one of the few large countries in the world with the bulk of its population living in rural areas. The enormity of India’s population means that even with a relatively low urbanization rate, the urban population will exceed by half a billion people, more than the entire population of the USA.
The early risers among the developing countries could exploit the advantage of low labor costs and freer trade, whereas the stringent and protectionist policies of India make it more challenging.
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